Stormy seas ahead? Potential impact of Brexit on the Dutch maritime sector

The KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis conducted research into the potential impact of Brexit on the Dutch maritime sector.

Impact on outbound and inbound transport

Brexit could have a considerable trade impact on maritime transport from and to Dutch ports (measured in tonnes). The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis’ Brexit trade scenarios served as a starting point for estimating this potential impact. For outbound transport, Brexit’s impact on all Dutch ports is estimated at -4.4% in an unfavourable scenario, and -2.6% in a favourable scenario. For inbound transport, the collective impact on all Dutch ports is estimated at -3.7% (unfavourable scenario) to -2.0% (favourable scenario).

Impact on competitive position

The research revealed that if, following Brexit, the United Kingdom no longer adheres to current EU maritime regulations, the expected impact on the competitive position of Dutch maritime shipping companies will be limited, as compared to British maritime shipping companies. The competitive position of Dutch ports however can expect to be negatively impacted.

These are the key research findings of the potential impact of Brexit on the Dutch maritime sector. KiM conducted this research on behalf of the Directorate-General for Civil Aviation and Maritime Affairs, Maritime Affairs Directorate.

Effect of Brexit on maritime transport to and from largest Dutch seaports
Inbound, trade agreementInbound, no trade agreementOutbound, trade agreementOutbound, no trade agreement
Amsterdam-0,018-0,033-0,006-0,009
Rotterdam-0,019-0,035-0,025-0,044
Vlissingen, Terneuzen-0,021-0,039-0,044-0,078
All ports-0,02-0,037-0,026-0,044
KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis Source table as .csv (277 bytes)