Civil aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme. Effects on the aviation sector, consumers and the environment (English)
The inclusion of aviation in the European CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme on 1 January 2012 can cost European airlines 0.2% of their passengers if they pass on the costs of the scheme in ticket prices.
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This is a relative decrease because the total number of airline passengers continues to rise. KLM and Schiphol will lose relatively more passengers than the average European airline and airport because they have a relatively high number of transfer passengers and these passengers are more sensitive to price rises than passengers in the domestic market. This is the outcome of model calculations with an emission price of 10 euros per tonne of CO2. At higher CO2 prices, the effects are of course larger. Including aviation within the ETS will lead in 2020 to a 29% reduction in CO2 emissions of aviation as compared to the level expected without the scheme.
These are just a few of the results of a study into the effects of including aviation in the EU ETS by the Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM) for the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. The study made use of a model and various scenarios to explore a range of possible effects and their order of magnitude. The study also examines the effects of possible retaliatory measures by parties outside the EU, such as a boycott of the ETS by non-EU airlines. A boycott would aggravate the consequences of the ETS for the Dutch aviation sector.