Mobility and Accessibility Outlook 2011-2015 (English summary)
Following a decrease in mobility levels due to the effects of the economic crisis, traffic volumes are again expected to increase from 2010 to 2015. Road traffic is expected to increase at a faster rate over the next 5 years than during the previous 5 years. This implies increased congestion levels. Over the past year, a small decrease in traffic volumes has led to a much larger decrease in delays caused by congestion. In the coming years, a reversal of this development is expected. The government objective of reducing congestion cannot be achieved under the current policies. The economic crisis had a much greater impact on freight transport and the aviation sector, both of which are strongly dependent on international developments. As the economy recovers, both freight transport flows and the number of airline passengers will also increase rapidly.
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These are the findings of the ‘Mobility and Accessibility Outlook 2011-2015’. In this study, the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis looks ahead to developments during the new Cabinet period of 2011-2015. In 2015 the number of kilometres travelled by car is expected to be 14 percent higher than in 2010 with average economic growth. Consequently, in 2015 there will be 16 percent more delays due to traffic jams and congestion on the main road network, as compared to 2010.
Future uncertainties about economic development could result in significantly more or significantly less congestion. Slower economic growth leads to an increase of delays of only 4 percent, whereas rapid economic growth could lead to a 30 percent increase in delays. Depending on the rates of economic development, the growth of passenger travel by train from 2010 and 2015 is estimated at 6 to 11 percent. The number of passenger kilometres travelled using regional public transport services – bus, tram and metro – is expected to remain relatively constant.